It would be a huge amount of preorders, a record that might not be broken again in the next 10 years, but Ming-Chi Kuo estimates that iPhone X preorders might top 50 million.
He explains that it is the first completely revamped form factor for the iPhone since the iPhone 6 debuted in 2014 —an update that generated a so-called “super cycle” for purchases, upgrades and switchers.
In particular, Kuo said he is convinced that the new Face ID login feature will be a major selling point, as no one else on the market offers such a seamless and reliable experience.
But that selling point is also a bottleneck for Apple in terms of iPhone X production, Kuo claims.
!The 3D sensing (TrueDepth camera) on iPhone X is composed of a structured-light system, time-of-flight system and a front-facing camera, which represents a far more complex structure than those of rivals,” Kuo said. “It will therefore be harder to achieve mass production.”
Kuo believes that Apple will ramp up output of the iPhone X in late October, ahead of an early November launch. But he doesn’t think that supply will begin to catch up with demand until some point in the first half of calendar year 2018.